by Adam Lang
November 14, 2009

Councilman Darrell Clarke, of the 5th council district, recently put forward more zoning legislation in his district that effectively requires many businesses to go through his office to start up. This prompted a discussion among many about the possibilities of him being beaten in an election for 2011. For the sake of discussion I have performed the following electoral analysis based on his previous primary election in 2007. I chose the primary since it doesn’t require any serious look at the numbers to know a Republican campaign in that district would be uphill across the board.

In 2007 Councilman Clarke had two primary challengers in Haile Johnston and John Longacre, two first time and lightly funded candidates. For the sake of ease, I will be consolidating their votes together to look at it in a “challenger vs. incumbent” scenario. Also, the 5th district is a very gerrymandered district comprising parts of Center City, Fishtown, Fairmount, North Philadelphia and the Northeast. I will be breaking down the district into several geographic ward groups.

(Map of the 5th Council District.)

Fairmount, Spring Garden West and Center City West

These neighborhoods are grouped together because they tend to be more middle class to affluent as well as a historical tendency to be areas that will vote independently within the party structure. It constituted 28% of the votes for the District.

In this area the incumbent Councilman Clarke won 55% of the vote. The divisions Clarke received his biggest spreads are interestingly different. The top three divisions are in and about Francisville, probably the poorest neighborhood in this whole group with the largest African American population. Clarke won these divisions with over 80% of the vote. The next three divisions are in the heart of the wealthier areas from Park Towne Place to 20th and JFK Boulevard that he won 65% to 75% of the vote. Being the varying demographic differences, it is hard to determine if the vote differences were due to policy or outreach.

Fishtown, Port Richmond and Northern Liberties

These divisions are cover a largely white, middle class to poor, but viewed to be on an upswing. The vote for this area makes up 7% of the district totals.

In this area Clarke won the vote with 55%. This area seems to have no significant spread one-way or the other.

Northwood

This area includes the gerrymandered section from the northeast. It covers 3% of the vote totals.

Clarke won 53% of the vote here. Even though the overall total was close, Clarke won all the divisions except one, which he lost with 35% of the vote total.

North Philadelphia: West of Broad St.

This area of Philadelphia has a significant poor African American population. It extends north of Fairmount up to Lehigh Ave. It makes up 40% of the votes cast.

Clarke won this section of city with 79% of the vote and only lost one division that was adjacent to the Fairmount neighborhood. Only one other division gave Clarke less than 60% of the vote and I believe that is the division one of the candidates lives in.

North Philadelphia: East of Broad St.

Much of this area is very similar to the west side of Broad St. It also includes the corridor to attach the district to the Northwood section. This has 20% of the vote for the district.

Clarke won this group with 79% of the vote, similar to the west side of Broad St. The only minor differences are that he lost no divisions, but had 4 divisions give him less than 60% of the vote.

Summary

The overall analysis of a challenger for the district is that they have to be able to get significant amounts of votes out of North Philadelphia. The amounts of votes are related to how many can be pulled out of the Fairmount – Center City group. The district cannot be won on a Center City vote alone if the incumbent holds North Philadelphia at similar numbers. Now, to the original question if the district is winnable by a challenger. A deeper and more reaching analysis can be done (and feel free to contact me if you are interested in such services) for a more accurate answer, but in general the district is winnable by a well-funded, qualified and determined challenger.